- Alabama’s loss opens a possible at-large playoff spot for Miami, depending on the selection committee’s decision.
- Texas Tech secured a top-four seed and a first-round bye after beating BYU for its first Big 12 title.
- Tulane is set to receive the Group of Five’s guaranteed playoff berth after winning the American Athletic Conference.
No. 10 Alabama never sniffed No. 3 Georgia in a 28-7 SEC championship game loss that could drop the Crimson Tide out of the College Football Playoff on the last day of the regular season.
That they rose one spot in the penultimate playoff rankings, swapping spots with No. 9 Notre Dame, suggested the Tide had the wiggle room to lose to Georgia and still make the tournament.
Part of that optimism stemmed from Alabama’s head-to-head win in late September. But there was a window of opportunity for Miami, ranked No. 12 in the playoff, that hinged on Alabama getting demonstrably outplayed by Georgia — and that’s exactly what happened.
Now the selection committee could be forced to make an incredibly difficult decision for the last at-large spot between Alabama and Miami.
There was last-minute chaos in the ACC, where five-loss Duke beat No. 16 Virginia 27-20 in overtime. Now that James Madison has completed a one-loss regular season with a Sun Belt crown, a Duke win could result in the ACC being left out of the 12-team field should Miami lose the at-large debate with the Crimson Tide.
And a heavyweight battle in the Big Ten ended with No. 2 Indiana beating No. 1 Ohio State 13-10 to secure the top overall seed in the playoff.
With just those two games left in the regular season, here are the winners and losers from conference championship weekend:
Winners
Indiana
Claiming the program’s first Big Ten title since 1967 meant beating the No. 1 team in the country, answering the question used to dismiss the Hoosiers for the past two years: Who have they played? Unlike last season, Indiana will surge into the playoff as one of the top contenders for the national championship and an intimidating matchup for any possible opponent. They’ll also be No. 1 in the US LBM Coaches Poll for the first time. At this point, there’s really nothing left to be said about the work Curt Cignetti has done transforming one of the weakest programs in the Power Four into a powerhouse. Meanwhile, quarterback Fernando Mendoza should have a firm hold on the Heisman Trophy after throwing for 222 yards and a score.
Duke
Winning the program’s first outright ACC championship since 1962 is cause for major celebration. An up-and-down ride to Saturday night included several impressive wins but even more impressive losses, to teams such as Tulane, Illinois, Georgia Tech and even Virginia less a month ago. There was always a feeling the Blue Devils were outperforming their record even as teams such as the Cavaliers, SMU and others drew far more national attention. But this memorable day for Duke is bad news for the ACC, as we’ll discuss.
Georgia
Georgia won the SEC for the second year in a row and looks like the league’s best shot at the national championship. Continuing a trend that began more than a month ago, the Bulldogs’ defense clamped down on the Crimson Tide and helped carry the load for an offense that failed to crack 300 yards for the second game in a row. Georgia will be the No. 2 seed in the final playoff rankings regardless of what happens in the Big Ten.
Miami and Notre Dame
That the debate for the last at-large spot should come down to Alabama and Miami is good news for Notre Dame, which is able to avoid having the loss to the Hurricanes relitigated on Selection Sunday. Miami lost twice, to Louisville and SMU, and fell short of the ACC championship game. But the Hurricanes’ case would be bolstered by a Duke win against Virginia, since they’d be the best contender from the ACC. While it’s possible, the committee will be wary of leaving out a Power Four league altogether; that’s where Miami could come into play.
Texas Tech
Beating BYU 34-7 for its first Big 12 title locks Texas Tech into one of the top four seeds and a bye through the opening round. There’s a chance the Red Raiders could earn the No. 3 seed based on what happens in the Big Ten championship game; should Indiana win, Ohio State is likely to drop two spots at most, which would keep the Red Raiders in the No. 4 spot. Looking back at the regular season, Tech has been easily one of the most dominant teams in the Power Four, losing just once — how this team lost to Arizona State is still a mystery — and beating every other opponent by at least 22 points. The Raiders beat BYU in two games by a combined 63-14 score.
Tulane
The No. 21 Green Wave beat No. 20 North Texas 34-21 on Friday night thanks to a plus-five turnover margin that yielded two defensive touchdowns and left a short field for two additional scores. That helped aid a furious 17-point second quarter capped by a short touchdown run by quarterback Jake Retzlaff as time expired in the first half. Keeping possession for over 35 minutes was huge: North Texas was sloppy but still averaged 6.1 yards per play, the most Tulane’s defense had allowed in almost a month. With the win, the Green Wave will earn the Group of Five’s one guaranteed playoff berth as either the No. 11 or No. 12 seed, depending on what happens in the ACC.
James Madison
James Madison will be in position to earn an unexpected playoff berth by taking care of Troy 31-14 on Friday night to finish an unbeaten romp through the Sun Belt. The Dukes have 12 wins to the Blue Devils’ eight and just one loss, but that loss did come to Louisville. In addition, Duke has seven Power Four wins while JMU has zero. Still, the one huge factor in the Dukes’ corner is the most recent playoff rankings. JMU was No. 25 and Duke was unranked. Does beating Virginia give the Blue Devils the boost to go from unranked with five losses to No. 24 or higher in the final rankings?
Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State beat Jacksonville State 19-15 on Friday night to take home the Conference USA championship and complete an eight-win jump from last season in coach Jerry Mack’s debut. The former Championship Subdivision power hit a speed bump in the transition to the Bowl Subdivision but is back on track under the former Tennessee assistant. Ahead 12-0 early in the fourth quarter, the Owls dropped behind 15-12 before going 75 yards on 11 plays and scoring the game-winning touchdown with 51 seconds to play.
Western Michigan
Western topped Miami (Ohio) 23-13 to capture the program’s first MAC championship since 2016 and fourth overall. The Broncos dropped three in a row out of the gate to Michigan State, North Texas and Illinois but have lost just once since, to the RedHawks in late October. Along the way, WMU beat every other MAC opponent to finish the regular season with a winning record in conference play.
Losers
The ACC
This is the most embarrassing moment for a conference in the expanded playoff era, certainly, and maybe the worst final day of the regular season for any of the current Power Four leagues in years. Because Duke won the ACC, the conference may be shut out of a playoff that is designed to avoid situations exactly like this. Basically, the playoff says the five highest-rated conference champions get automatic bids because, hey, what are the odds that one of the Power Four doesn’t grab one of those spots, right? And even if one of these leagues has an off year and falls behind, say, the American, there’s a one-spot safety net. This year, the ACC champion might’ve plummeted into sixth place among all conferences — we won’t know until the final rankings. While Duke might lose the comparison to James Madison, the good news is that Miami might save the day for the ACC. If not, tomorrow is going to be even more humiliating.
Alabama
Down 14-0 at halftime, the Tide fell behind 21-0 after three quarters and didn’t score until a Ty Simpson touchdown pass a few minutes into the fourth. Overall, Alabama gained 209 yards, had -3 yards rushing and committed one turnover, not counting a blocked punt that led to Georgia’s first score and failed two fourth-down conversions. But sloppy and ineffective play has been the story for Alabama since early November. After beating No. 24 Tennessee comfortably, the Tide barely beat South Carolina, was pedestrian against LSU, lost to No. 8 Oklahoma and needed a late score to win the Iron Bowl. Truthfully, this hasn’t looked like a playoff team for about a month. Combine an uncompetitive loss on Saturday with a sluggish home stretch to the regular season and you have the ingredients to get left out of the playoff.
Brigham Young
BYU was in the playoff with a win but will have no shot at an-at large bid with the loss. That’s a disappointing way to end another banner season for a program clearly on a rocketing trajectory under coach Kalani Sitake, who recently rebuffed overtures from Penn State in favor of a contract extension. There are good building blocks for next season on the roster and reason to think the Cougars will again be in the mix for the playoff. But this year’s team twice ran into the Texas Tech buzzsaw.
Ohio State
Not winning the Big Ten stinks, sure, but that didn’t stop the Buckeyes last year. Ohio State will drop to No. 3 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and probably finish No. 3 in the playoff rankings, too, though Texas Tech could rise and dump OSU to No. 4. In that case, the Buckeyes would still get a bye through the opening round and then face the winner of the No. 5 and No. 12 matchup before potentially drawing a rematch with the Hoosiers in the national semifinals.
North Texas
Two painful gut punches in one: First, the loss to Tulane costs North Texas a playoff trip, and two, the loss also marks the final game for Oklahoma State-bound coach Eric Morris. The Mean Green moved quickly to hire his successor in former West Virginia coach Neal Brown; that’s a strong hire and should keep North Texas as a factor in the American. But this was a special season, and special seasons don’t come around very often.
UNLV
For the third year in a row under two different coaches, UNLV reached the Mountain West championship game but came up short to Boise State. This year’s 38-21 loss was basically done at halftime and the Broncos holding a 28-14 lead, though they didn’t put the game away until a short touchdown run early in the fourth quarter. This was still a strong year for new coach Dan Mullen.